Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Current Senate If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Click here! Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. (Disclosure: hes a friend.) Alicia Parlapiano Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. 2 References. . 3 See also. What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. Web1 Predictions. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. 1.2 Close races. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. Along with the powerful influence of presidential partisanship, incumbency continues to have a substantial impact on Senate elections, with the average incumbent adding about 8 points of margin to her partys expected vote. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. Overall, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won 156 of 174 Senate contests during these years, a success rate of just under 90%. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. While the three majority-Hispanic counties Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to drop more in the midterms compared with other groups. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large.
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